Normal, Illinois 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

429
FXUS63 KILX 191712
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1212 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Substantial warming continue Today through Sunday over central
  and southeast IL, with well above normal temperatures expected.
  High temperatures in the 70s will be common, with areas from
  Springfield sw approaching 80F Friday and Saturday and areas
  from I-72 south approaching 80F on Sunday.

- A weak cold front pushes through central/se IL dry on Friday
  afternoon. A stronger cold front moving in Sunday afternoon,
  bringing a low chance for showers, followed by a return to
  cooler, near-normal temperatures early next work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The 08Z/3 am surface analysis shows high pressure ridge from the
New England coast sw into the southern Gulf Coast states. A warm
front was in far sw IL near the MO border and extended to weak
1013 mb low pressure near Lincoln in southeast Nebraska. Temps
were in the upper 30s/lower 40s over CWA with mid 40s by Quincy,
Pittsfield, Flora and Olney. Satellite imagery loop shows mid/high
clouds over eastern IL and areas from I-74 ne and near the MS
river valley into MO and moving se in nw mid/upper level flow. The
nearest showers were in se WI, ne IN and sw lower MI associated
with a weak short wave over the central Great Lakes. Radar mosaic
shows some very weak echoes from BMI to Paris ne and these may be
a few sprinkles at best. Also some weak echo returns in central MO
out of 10-12k ft mid level clouds.

The latest CAMs show these patches of mid/high clouds decreasing
from nw to se during this morning, with increasing amounts of
sunshine by late morning and afternoon. Weak low pressure to track
into central IL by midday pulling warm front into the area, but
and dissipate with a weak frontal boundary lingering over the
area. Weak pressure gradient today so only south to SE winds less
than 10 mph. Models have trended warmer today with highs in the
upper 60s/lower 70s (even near 75F from Springfield sw).
Temperatures got warmer yesterday with more sunshine so this may
be true again today especially if we get into those sunnier skies
this afternoon. The warm front to push east of IL by sunrise
Friday as moves through area dry. Low tonight in the mid to upper
50s, with SE IL near 50F.

Weak low pressure over southern Alberta Canada to track into
northern MI by dawn Fri and push a weak cold front se through CWA
during Fri afternoon. This front to push thru dry with limited
moisture and lift with its moisture likely staying ne of IL.
Somewhat breezy sw winds ahead of the front gusting 20-25 mph to
switch west to nw after frontal passage. Cooling is delayed behind
the front so warm highs in the 70s look likely with areas sw of
Springfield approaching 80F. Lows Fri night back in the mid to
upper 40s.

The strong 590-594 dm 500 mb high over AZ and the Baja of Mexico
late this week while upper level trof over Eastern Canada and
eastern Great Lakes keeps IL in a nw upper level flow. NBM
guidance continues highs in the low to mid 70s Saturday with
upper 70s sw of Springfield (coolest ne CWA).

Stronger low pressure and cold front to track into the Midwest
later Sat night into Sunday. Models still differ on how quickly
cold front moves through, but consensus is during Sunday afternoon
with breezy sw winds ahead of this front bringing mild 70s, with
areas from I-72 south near 80F. But if front moves through quicker
this would bring cooler temps in sooner too and we could not be as
warm especially in central IL. The Ecmwf, GEM and GFS show
limited qpf with cold frontal passage so may see small chances of
convection with areas se toward Ohio river having high chances of
convection by Sunday evening.

A fairly strong 1030-1034 mb Canadian high pressure then settles
into the western Great Lakes and IL by sunset Monday and this to
decrease clouds and bring much cooler temps with highs Mon in the
upper 40s/lower 50s with lows Mon night 30-35F. Large high
pressure ridge shifts into the eastern Great Lakes and mid
Atlantic States Tue with return southerly flow over IL starting to
warm temps back up. Highs Tue in the mid to upper 50s, to reaching
60s Wed. Another stronger storm system looks to impact the Midwest
around next Thu with next chance of rain.

The Climate Prediction (CPC) 8-14 Day Outlook for Mar 26-Apr 1
has a 45-55% chance of above normal temperatures over central/se
IL and precipitation trending near normal (33-40% below normal in
southern IL from I-64 south). So the average temperature during
March trending solidly above normal across the area and possibly
approaching the top 10 warmest.

07

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Low pressure will dig across the Great Lakes this evening and
overnight. Ahead of the low, light southerly winds 6-11kt will be
in place across central Illinois. Winds will veer to SWerly ahead
of an approaching cold front Friday morning, then veer to NWerly
behind the cold front Friday afternoon. No precip is expected with
the front and VFR conditions are likely through the period.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$